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Credit Crunch Fears Shake The Global Markets

2008-05-20T22:46:00.005-04:00

Yen gained against the dollar on fears about the credit crunch and housing market decline. Investors cut bets in the carry trades as the worlds stock markets took a tumble today. Carry trades are considered hi risk investment. Naturally in a time of crises, the investors orient themselfs toward lower risk assests.

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Here's how the currency pairs look at the moment I'm typing this. The usd/jpy is at 103.23 down over 100 pips since yesterday. The dollar is at a week low against the yen. The aud/jpy is at 99.10 50 pips down from yesterday's low, same as the nzd/jpy which is down to 79.95.

The yen remained almost unchanged against the euro and the pound, primarely on good news coming from europe. Wolfgang Franz, president of the ZEW Center for European Economic Research and economic adviser to the German government, said the European Central Bank may have to ignore the economy's weakness and increase interest rates to curb inflation. The gbp/jpy stands at 203.18 and eur/jpy at 161.75.

World stock markets took a tumble today with dow jones leading the fall losing over 200 points today or 1,53%. The FTSE lost 2,5%, and all the major worlds stock markets are down today.

It will the interesting to see the minutes of the fed meeting that are coming out tommorow. Tommorow we also have the minutes from the Bank of England. These two events will help us see how the central banks plan to act in the future. For now lets see how far the fears about the credit crunch will take the market this time. this thing isn't over yet!

I plan to do this kind of market analysis on a regular basis, so please bookmark my blog.

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Forex Trader looking for Writing Jobs

2008-05-18T17:53:00.002-04:00

I'm looking for some forex or financial related writing work, writing articles or blogging. Good quality for the money. Contact me if interested.

Forex Trading - FOMC Unimous About Keeping Rates Unchanged

2007-05-31T12:23:00.000-04:00

Forex Trading - FOMC Unimous About Keeping Rates Unchanged. In forex trading yesterday, the Fed was torn between the inflation issue and housing. In the end they decided to keep rates unchanged.

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According to the minutes of their metting held on May 9, the Fed officials expect the economy to improve this year and they eye inflation as their main concern. They also list the the risk that the housing recession may ``weigh heavily'' on growth. The also said the risks of a slowdown have ``diminished slightly.''

``Recent developments were seen as supporting the Committee's view that maintaining the current target rate was likely to foster moderate economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation,'' the minutes said.

The minutes of the Fed meeting on may 9 was the event that was widely expected by the forex markets yesterday, but it hardly move the market. The pound was up just 16 pips 1 hour after the report, and the euro was up just 10 pips.

Forex News - US economy weakest in four years

2007-05-31T11:56:00.000-04:00

Forex News for May 31 - The US economy grew at a pace of 0.6% in the first three months of 2007, its weakest rate in more than four years. This figure was a downward revision on the initial 1.3% estimate, and was also worse than market expectations of 0.8%.

It was the slowest rate of growth since the final three months of 2002.

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Significant reason for the weak numbers was the fall in the housing market, which posted a 15.4% reduction in new home building during the quarter.

Consumer spending remained resilient, adding 4.4%, and business investment was better than earlier estimates, growing 2.9%, revised up from 2%.

Some comments of the analysts incuded:

"It's quite obvious the economy bottomed in the first quarter and this leaves us with a better base from which to bounce back."

"I think we'll see second-quarter growth above 3% and 2.5% for all of 2007," said Lehman Brothers senior economist Drew Matus."

Forex Trading Update - G7 pressures China to Make Currency More Flexible

2006-09-16T08:15:00.000-04:00

Forex Trading Update - China came under renewed pressure today by G7 nations to make it's currency more flexible. Source: Bloomberg. Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty yesterday said: ``We need to see more flexibility in the Asian currencies''.

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An official said the group will issue a statement later today which repeats exchange rate flexibility in China would be ``desirable.''

G7 Meetings and statements have been closely watched by forex traders since the 1985 Plaza Accord in New York, where ministers of the largest economies called for a weaker dollar, stronger yen and higher deutsche mark. Those words sparked a three-year slide in the U.S. currency, which the group tried to halt in 1987 when they met at the Louvre in Paris.

We all saw what happened in April when a call for the yuan to appreciate sent the dollar tumbling, even after officials explained that that statement wasn't a call to sell the dollar. Asian forex trading currencies rose after the April G7 meeting.

Here is what some analysts are saying ahead of the meeting:

``They have to be careful what they say after the last meeting,'' said Steve Pearson, a currency strategist in London at HBOS Plc, Britain's biggest mortgage lender. ``The message is be careful what you say because there could be unintended consequences.''

``I'm not expecting any great moves out of this G-7 in general, but people will be following the nuances,'' said David Malpass, chief economist at Bear Stearns Cos. in New York.

Unnamed G7 official: The statement will not mention the Japanese yen

The statement will not mention the Japanese yen, an unnamed G-7 official said. Ahead of the talks, French and German officials criticized the currency's 6 percent decline against the euro this year out of concern it will hurt European exports. French Finance Minister Thierry Breton repeated yesterday the euro is ``fully valued,'' indicating he doesn't want to see it rise further.

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It would be interesting to see what happens this weekend. Definitely we will see some moves after the G7 meeting. It will be a fun Monday morning for forex trading.

Forex News Trading Strategy

2006-07-15T13:19:00.000-04:00

Forex News Trading Strategy - I haven't traded the news before, but after finding this forex news trading strategy, I may reconsider. The strategy was posted by a guy called Ricky, under the handle of NWRK. Here's the new thread for this forex news trading strategy. Rick closed the original thread and started a site of his own forex news trader. I haven't used his payed service, so I can't comment on it, I'm just testing his forex news trading strategy.

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Here are the rules for this forex news trading strategy ( this is Rick's original post):

Forex News Trading Strategy

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Hello, I am new to this forum, but not to Forex. I would like to share a way of trading the news with a high rate of w/l trades. This strategy is for high volatile moves. No indicators are needed. No RSI, No MACD, no nothing! Just the pair you are interested in on a 1 minute time frame! Here is how it works! If this has been posted on this forum before, I am sorry, but I came up with this last year, and have been trading it sense.

Set-Up I trade the following news events: NFP, FOMC, Trade Balance, interest rate statements, consumer price index, and gross domestic products. These seam to move the best for this strategy.

The country, and pairs are usd, jpy, uk, BOC, E-12.
NOTE: the wicks, or shadows do not count!

UP-TREND
How it works! You have points (A), and (B). retrace then enter.
Point (A)=open of first candle.
point (B)=the close of the candle, before the fisrt down (bear) candle. If there is 3 candles up, then a pull back (bear) candle, the close of the 3rd candle is the (B) point!
NOTE:the first candle can have both (A) and (B) points!

Entry:UP-DATE ON ENTRY PLEASE READ The first candle to close above, or below, OR BREACH point (A), or (B) is where you enter the trade. If it closes , or breaches above point (B), then you go long. If it closes below, or breaches point (A), then you go short.
NOTE:After the retracement the candle must close, or breach above, or below point (A), or (B)! do not enter until then!

EXIT:The distance between point (A), and point (B), is the minimum target you should try for!

Stop:What ever point you get in at, the other point is your stop! if you get in at point (A), then point (B) is your stop. If you get in at point (B), then point (A) is your stop. Myself, if I get in a trade other then the NFP, and I see profit at any point, I do not let it go against me. I will try for the spread, or even!

Same thing for down trend. open of first candle is point (A), price goes down, then pulls back, at that point you have point (B). Price goes up. When a candle closes on the other side of (A), or below (B), then enter the trade that way with a target of the distance between (A), and (B)!

The other news releases don't always move the market the way the NFP DOES! My target for those is 75% of the distance from point (A), to point(B). If it only moves a little and you make say 10 pips, and you exit the trade...if price goes up and closes on the other side of the other point, then enter the trade that way also, with the same target!

It is that easy! I have lost 1 trade sense I have been trading this strategy. I hope it does for you, what it has done for me! Happy trading...

WARNING:ANY STRATEGY COMES WITH RISK THE RESULTS I HAVE HAD WITH THIS STRATEGY, MAY NOT BE YOUR RESULTS KEEP TO THE RULES, AND YOU (SHOULD) HAVE GOOD RESULTS!!!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Regarding the entry, Rick suggested in a later post on the SB forum thread ( I posted the link above) that after considering a breach of the candle for entry, he got back to his original idea a close of the candle - After the retracement the candle must close above, or below point (A) or (B).

That's all.

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Please visit SB forum thread to inform yourself about updates to the strategy, post questions, and share with other people that use this forex news trading strategy. Hope to see you there! Here's the link again: forex news trading strategy

Bank of Japan raises rates for the first time in six years

2006-07-15T12:59:00.000-04:00

Bank of Japan raises rates for the first time in six years - The BOJ raised rates yesterday, the first such move in six years. The overnight call rate was raised from zero to 0.25 per cent, in line with expectations, but the discount or Lombard rate, at which the BoJ lends directly to financial institutions, was only raised by 30 basis points to 0.4 per cent, less than the forecast 40-basis point rise.

Tony Norfield, global head of FX policy at ABN Amro said: "A 50 basis point rate would have given the yen support; 40 basis points leaves it vulnerable to further weakness"

BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui said 3 of 9 board members advocated raising the discount rate, to 0.5 percent. They were outvoted by the majority who favored lifting it by 30 basis points to 0.4 percent, less than some analysts had forecast. Fukui told reporters after the decision the bank doesn't plan to raise rates consecutively.

Dispite the rate rises, the dovish statement contributed to wide yen selling. The yen fell against all major currencies after the news. It closed at 116.12 against the usd, gbp / jpy closed at 213.45, and eur / jpy closed at 146.87.

You can find the Bank of Japan statements here BOJ Announcement of Decisions

Thanks for reading this article. Later I will post how I traded the Bank of Japan news release.

FOMC June Meeting Decision and Aftermath

2006-07-01T11:55:00.000-04:00

FOMC June Meeting Decision and Aftermath - The Fed raised its fed funds rate by 25 bps to 5.25% on it's last two day meeting ending June 29. A move expected my most analysts but the surprise was the statement issued after the meeting.

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The FED maintained its description of inflation expectations as "remain contained" while the impact of resource utilization and rising energy prices to continue to only "have the potential to sustain inflation pressures".

However, the FED changed the part of the statement regarding economic growth. FOMC gave this assessment of the US economy in it's June 29 statement: indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.

In it's May 10 Meeting, regarding economic growth the FED said: "The Committee sees growth as likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace".

Regarding future decisions, the FED said: "The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to support the attainment of its objectives".

The FED maintained the decision will depend on the data attitude, not giving any clues about it's future moves. This should cause additional activities like we've seen in the past months, the traders interpreting every data release as more significant, and adding more weight to it, which in turn could lead to choppy trading ahead.

You can find the text of the statement here: FOMC June Meeting Statement

Still the statement is dollar negative and dovish. The FED issued a more certain note towards moderating economic activity, while making no upgrade in its inflation vigilance.

The dollar feel against all major currencies as a result of the statement. It lost 130 pips against the euro after the FOMC June Meeting Decision, and closed at 1.2666. Against the pound, the dollar lost 170 pips and closed at 1.8274.

In yesterday's trading we saw the effect of the the decision will depend on the data attitude when the dollar got hammered badly on a set of bad news. The dollar fell for a second day yesterday, losing 124 pips against the euro, and 206 pips against cable. It closed the week at 1.2791 versus the euro, and at 1.8482 against the pound.

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All questions and comments are welcomed as usual. Thanks for reading FOMC June Meeting Decision and Aftermath analysis.

FOMC June 2006 meeting - More US rate rises

2006-06-23T23:47:00.000-04:00

FOMC June 2006 meeting - More US rate rises seem almost a done deal. As I concluded in my analysis back on June 14 Forex Online Trading June 14 - Another Rate Hike in June the move for the Federal Open Market Committee on the June 28 and June 29 2-Day Meeting will almost certanly be a quarter point increase to 5.25 per cent.

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On the last meeting Ben Bernanke and CO said the decision will depend on incoming data, and the data came out strong. Consumer Price Index reports:

Data released showed consumer inflation running at a faster-than-expected pace of 0.4 percent in May, pushed up by a steep increase in energy. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, advanced 0.3 percent in the month and stands 2.4 percent higher year-on-year.

However, there is a reason for concern as stated in my June 13 report Higher Interest Rates Hurts the Global Markets Over 2 Trillion . The markets around the world got hurt badly by the recent events. Besides the US a number of countries are rising or preparing to raise rates. The FED should be really careful about it's future steps, and choose the right balance between the need to fight inflation and the possibility for causing a global economic slowdown.

FOMC June 2006 decision to increase rates by 25 points to 5.25 % maybe a done deal, but the future remains uncertain. Most analysts predict a move in June and maybe one more in august, but an increasing number start to raise their forecasts.

On Thursday, Barclays became the first primary dealer bank to predict 6 per cent rates before the year end. We have become less convinced that the FOMC will be comfortable keeping rates at 5.5 per cent in August as growth remains strong and core inflation continues to move higher, the banks economists said.

Fed funds futures, a gauge of the markets interest rate expectations, have swung sharply this month. August contracts price in an 80 per cent probability of a quarter-point rate rise in that month, in addition to the quarter-point expected next week.

We think that there is a notable chance of a 50 basis point rate hike at an upcoming meeting, said Barclays. The FED had raised rates in quarter-point increments a rise next week would be the 17th in a row. Source: Financial Times.

The list of prominent names that expect the FED to go near 6 % include : Lehman Brothers with a forecast of 5.75 per cent, JPMorgan and Credit Suisse, with a 6 per cent peak but both expect that rate some time next year.

The FOMC June 2006 meeting starts on June 28 and the FED decision will be announced on June 29 at 14:15 EST time. The consensus is for a 25 points increase to 5.25 %. Comments, questions and suggestion are welcomed.

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Thanks for reading FOMC June 2006 meeting analysis.

Forex Trading Video - Every Breath You Take

2006-06-16T02:27:00.000-04:00

Forex Trading Video - Every Breath You Take - A hilarious forex trading related video. A parody of the new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his policies, plus Ben gets punched in the face! Courtesy of Columbia Business School.

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To watch the video 1. Click stop on the forex tv player at the previous post titled " Forex Trading - Forex TV LIVE! " and 2. Click play on the player located here below.
Or visit Forex Trading Video - Every Breath You Take and click play. Enjoy!

While you are here visit the new interactive features I've added to my blog:

Forex Trading - Forex TV LIVE!

Forex Trading - Forex News

Forex Trading - Economic News

Forex Trading - Technical Analysis

Forex Trading - Long Term Analysis

Forex Trading - Analyst Commentary

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Did you like this video? Why not share it with your friends? Just click the icon shaped like an envelope below. Thank you for watching this forex trading video.

Forex Trading - Forex TV LIVE!

2006-06-14T23:05:00.000-04:00

Forex Trading - Forex TV - The latest forex news, market updates, commentary all LIVE! on Forex TV!

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Forex Trading - Forex News

2006-06-14T22:58:00.000-04:00

Forex Trading - Forex News - See what moves the currency market with the latest forex news!

Forex Trading - Economic News

2006-06-14T22:55:00.000-04:00

Forex Trading - Economic News - Get the bigger picture of the economy with forex trading economic news.

Forex Trading - Technical Analysis

2006-06-14T22:52:00.000-04:00

Forex Trading - Technical Analysis - The latest technical analysis of the forex market.

Forex Trading - Long Term Analysis

2006-06-14T22:49:00.000-04:00

Forex Trading - Long Term Analysis - See the longterm picture with Forex Trading - Long Term Analysis

Forex Trading - Analyst Commentary

2006-06-14T22:46:00.000-04:00

Forex Trading - Analyst Commentary - The latest forex trading analyst commentary.

Forex Online Trading June 14 - Another Rate Hike in June

2006-06-14T20:14:00.000-04:00

Forex Online Trading June 14 - Another Rate Hike in June seems almost certain after today's stronger than expected Consumer Price Index reports.

Data released earlier on Wednesday showed consumer inflation running at a faster-than-expected pace of 0.4 percent in May, pushed up by a steep increase in energy. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, advanced 0.3 percent in the month and stands 2.4 percent higher year-on-year. Source: Reuters.

The dollar gained a little after the reports but erased all gains immediately after and closed the day at a loss against all majors. The dollar closed at 1.8432 losing 90 pips against the pound, and at 1.2605 against the euro losing 61 pips.

``The foreign-exchange markets focus is now not simply on interest-rate differentials, which have supported the dollar,'' said Masashi Kurabe, senior manager of foreign exchange at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of the world's biggest lender by assets. ``The markets have already fully factored in a June rate hike, and are beginning to worry about the U.S. economic setback. The dollar looks weak.''

The dollar could fall for a second day before U.S. reports on manufacturing and factory production that will probably intensify concern that interest-rate increases are cutting growth.

That's all. Thanks for reading Forex Online Trading June 14.

Higher Interest Rates Hurts the Global Markets Over 2 Trillion

2006-06-13T19:14:00.001-04:00

Higher Interest Rates Hurts the Global Markets Over 2 Trillion - Investors have been dumping anything they hold on fears that higher inflation and higher us interest rates will hurt global economic growth. source : Reuters

"It is essentially one consistent story worldwide, starting here in the U.S. There is a fear that the Fed's repeated commitment to limiting inflation demonstrates a willingness to risk economic activity," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.

Us stock markets erase all gains for the year and start to go south. The Dow Jones industrial average is off 8.2 percent since mid-May, the Nasdaq Composite Index is off 12.75 percent from its high for the year on April 19 and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has fallen by nearly 8 percent from its May peaks.

The sutuation is the same with virtually all the global markets....

On Tuesday, Tokyo's Nikkei average had its biggest one-day percentage fall in two years, tumbling 4.14 percent. In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares has fallen about 11 percent since May 11.

Since its year high hit in early May, the MSCI World Index of global stocks has lost $1.9 trillion in market capitalization, nearly 12 percent of its value.

And according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s, the global sell-off, however, is not over and may only be just starting, according to global equity strategist Abhijit Chakrabortti.

"This is nothing compared with what we may see late in the summer and early October -- once slower growth finally sinks in and expectations for higher benchmark rates, at 6 percent or even more, come out," Chakrabortti told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York.

As for the dollar? Well the recent determination of the fed to curb inflation no matter what help the dollar climb to a multi-week hi against all majors. It closed at 1.2545 against the eur gaining 35 pips, and at 1.8343 against the gbp gaining 80 pips. Thanks for reading my blog and please feel free to leave a comment about the effects of higher interest rates, or about anything you like.

Forex Market Trading May23 Aftermath

2006-05-24T05:50:00.001-04:00

Forex Market Trading May23 Aftermath - The dollar gained more ground yesterday, gaining 79 pips against the euro and 86 pips against gbp. In the forex trading news, Credit rating agency S&P upgraded Japan's debt rating to positive from stable, highlighting continued improvement in the economy. However, the upgrade will keep the pressure on the BoJ to soon shift from its current zero-rate policy and recognize further recovery in its economy.Despitee this the dollar gained 72 pips against the yen.

In yesterday's forex market trading we had a woodies cci signal, a zero line reject, but it failed again. As you can see from the 1 hour euro chart, the euro failed to make a zlr in yesteday's forex market trading. It did make a zero line cross, but it was at 18:00 CET (central european time), too late to enter. As you can see from the chart, I prefer zero line reject woodies cci pattern on lower timeframe too, but when there isn't one, I might take a zero line cross. This is a riskier entry however.

Still the reqirements for entry on lower timeframe avoid another loss, and if entered based on daily chart alone, you would probably take a big loss in yesterday's forex market trading.

Thanks for reading my blog, all comments and questions are welcomed. That's all for today's forex market trading may23 aftermath.

Forex Market Trading May23 Aftermath

2006-05-24T05:50:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May23 Aftermath - The dollar gained more ground yesterday, gaining 79 pips against the euro and 86 pips against gbp. In the forex trading news, Credit rating agency S&P upgraded Japan’s debt rating to positive from stable, highlighting continued improvement in the economy. However, the upgrade will keep the pressure on the BoJ to soon shift from its current zero-rate policy and recognize further recovery in its economy. Dispite this the dollar gained 72 pips against the yen.

In yesterday's forex market trading we had a woodies cci signal, a zero line reject, but it failed again. As you can see from the 1 hour euro chart, the euro failed to make a zlr in yesteday's forex market trading. It did make a zero line cross, but it was at 18:00 CET (central european time), too late to enter. As you can see from the chart, I prefer zero line reject woodies cci pattern on lower timeframe too, but when there isn't one, I might take a zero line cross. This is a riskier entry however.

Still the reqirements for entry on lower timeframe avoid another loss, and if entered based on daily chart alone, you would probably take a big loss in yesterday's forex market trading.

Thanks for reading my blog, all comments and questions are welcomed. That's all for today's forex market trading may23 aftermath.

Forex Market Trading May23 Preview

2006-05-23T02:55:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May23 Preview - Forex market trading may23 preview - The dollar lost more ground yesterday. The euro gained 86 against the dollar yesterday, the gbp gained 78 pips against the dollar. On the chart above you can see that the euro has formed a zero line reject woodies cci pattern. However there are a few signs of caution.

First in earlier forex market trading we had a zero line reject that failed, it didn't even cross the zero line on 15 minute chart. Second, the bollinger bands are starting to flatten, that's a sign of a possible consolidation. If this zero line fails, I expect the trend to go flat, or even reverse. My forex trading strategy for today is to enter on lower timeframe, the best would be a zero line reject, but it maybe a zero line cross too. Timeframes for entering are 1 hour, 30 minutes and 15 minutes, in order of importance.

Forex market trading yesterday saw the euro gain ground against the dollar on the statement by ECB's Chief Economist Otmar Issing - he suggested the ECB would further tighten policy if the economy continues to develop as expected. He also added that the Bank would not be guided by short-term developments, in response to a question on whether they would consider the recent equity declines.

The euro was pushed by Eurozone's trade balance yesterday - The Eurozone's trade balance unexpectedly rose into a trade surplus for March at 1.2 billion euros, compared with a deficit of 3.1 billion euros in February. Economists were expecting the deficit to remain unchanged at 3.1 billion euros.

Forex market trading more important reports for today are(all times eastern EST:

CHF Trade Balance (APR) 2:15 cons 0.40B prev 0.61B
EUR French Business Confidence Indicator (MAY)2:45 cons 107 prev 108
EUR French Production Outlook Indicator (MAY) 2:45 cons 1 prev 2
EUR French Consumer Spending s.a. (MoM) (APR) 2:50 cons 0.4% prev -0.6%
EUR French Consumer Spending (YoY) (APR) 2:50 cons 3.7% prev 3.5%
CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (APR) 4:00 prev 1.743
EUR Euro-zone Industrial New Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAR) 5:00 cons -1.0% prev 2.7%
EUR Euro-zone Industrial New Orders (YoY) (MAR) cons 5:00 prev 13.3%
JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAR) 19:50 cons -0.2% prev -1.5%
At 10:00am USA Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks so be carefull.

Good trading everyone. That's all for today's forex market trading may23 preview.

Forex Market Trading May19 Aftermath

2006-05-20T01:40:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May19 Aftermath - The dollar gained more ground against the majors, gaining 70 pips against the euro and 132 pips against gbp. After the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Announcement, on which the BOJ decided to left rates unchanged, the yen lost 76 pips against the dollar.

Forex market trading yesterday was basically just one big slide of the majors against the dollar (see chart - click on it to enlarge). The ZLR that I reported about earlier here forex market trading may19 preview, didn't follow through, but as I said I had some reservations about entering. The slide in yesterday's forex market trading began from the very start of europe open. I was looking to enter long, but the downtrend in euro just wouldn't stop. See how on the 15 minute chart the euro stayed below the ZL basically the whole day. When it broke the ZL at 17:45 CET (11:45 EST) it was too late in my opinion to enter long. The week close was too close, just a few hours away, and the didn't like the risk of holding that trade overnight, especially with the recent dollar gains. After that point the euro gained 30 pips in forex market trading to close at 1.2777. The gbp closed at 1.8797. The yen closed at 111.68.

Forex market trading this week saw the dollar gain against the euro and the yen for the first time in four weeks. It was also the first weekly gain against gbp after six loosing weeks. The US inflation data and jawboning from French finance minister to a lesser extent served as an effective means of slowing down the dollar decline. This week's forex market trading bounce in the dollar wasn't because of improvement in the currency's prospects but a drop in the value of commodities denominated in US dollars. Still the dollar has it's share of problems: trade deficit, central bank diversification, near end to Fed hikes, and possible yuan revaluation.

On the other side of forex market trading, we have The Bank of Japan expected tightening. The European Central Bank and The Bank of England also may raise interest rates. The future doesn't look promising for the dollar.

That's all for today's forex market trading may19 aftermath.

Forex Market Trading May19 Preview

2006-05-19T01:35:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May19 Preview - After the dollar fall yesterday to 1.2848 against the euro and at 1.8928 against gbp, we have a Woodies CCI ZLR pattern on the daily chart you see above (click on it to enlarge to fullscreen). It's not a clear cut ZLR as there's not much follow through not the way I like them. Gbp and yen don't have this pattern, chf has a similar ZLR but them again usd / chf is a mirror image of eur / usd. Still I plan to take this ZLR on lower timeframe with a tight stop, but I will use caution.

Forex market trading for today has a number of reports coming out, the most important will be Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Announcement, the expectation are the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates near zero, but forex traders will be scrutinizing the statements for any changes of the language the Bank of Japan will use. Of the other reports the important ones are:

Forex Market Trading May19 Reports -
EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (APR) 2:00 cons 0.7% prev 0.5%
EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (APR) 2:00 cons 5.8% prev 5.9%
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) 2:50 cons 0.6% prev 0.4%
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P) 2:50 cons 1.8% prev 1.5%
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (pounds) (APR) 4:30 cons -0.7B prev 16.0B
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (pounds) (APR) 4:30 cons 0.6B prev 7.0B
CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR) 8:30 cons 0.6% prev -0.4%
CAD Retail Sales less Autos (MoM) (MAR) 8:30 cons 0.7% prev 0.3%

Good trading everyone, all comments are welcomed, that's all for this forex market trading may19 preview.

Forex Market Trading May18 Aftermath

2006-05-19T01:02:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May18 Aftermath - The dollar lost more ground against the all majors except the yen, falling 106 pips against gbp and 105 pips against the euro. However the dollar remained practically unchanged against the yen, gaining only 2 pips. The yen is weak across the board, it lost 124 pips against the euro and 120 pips against the gbp. Better than expected Gross Domestic Product figures in today's early forex market trading didn't help the yen, as it bounced back quickly to pre-repost levels.

Forex market trading yesterday saw another sign of usd slowdown in figures in the Philadelphia Fed Survey, the dollar lost more ground after that report. In a statement by Richmond Fed President Lacker in yesterday's forex market trading, Lacker expressed disappointment over the previous two rounds of inflation reports, saying they were higher than the Fed had anticipated. Plus he also said there was a fairly substantial flow of data from the last monetary policy meeting to the next and that unfavorable inflation numbers with higher inflation expectations will make a pause less likely.

However despite his comments the dollar lost more ground in yesterday's forex market trading The dollar closed at 1.2848 against the euro and at 1.8928 against gbp.

That's all for today's forex market trading may18 aftermath.

Forex Market Trading May18 Preview

2006-05-18T01:32:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May18 Preview - The Bank of Japan is starting it's Monthly Policy Meeting today. The Bank of Japan is expected to leave rates unchanged on this meeting. Forex traders are starting to speculate the Bank of Japan may increase rates in July instead of June. Still the yen is strong against the board. Above is a chart of the usd / jpy. Just like all the majors, the yen is retracing against the dollar. As it gets closer to the CCI zero-line we should see a decision of future market direction.

Forex Market Trading yesterday brought stronger than expected CPI see here Forex Market Trading May17 Aftermath. Still with the fed near it's tigthening cycle, and the Bank of Japan on the start of raising rates, the longterm bias is for yen to gain against the usd. However timing is just as important as direction, so I'm using caution.

Among today more important forex market trading news are: GBP Retail Sales, CAD Consumer Price Index, USD Leading Indicators, USD Philadelphia Fed Survey, JPY Gross Domestic Product and finally JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Announcement.

Here's a more complete list of today's forex market trading news:

4:30 am UK Apr Retail Sales (ex 2.4%, prev 2.2%) 7:00 am CAN Apr CPI y/y (exp 2.4%, prev 2.2%) Apr Core CPI y/y (exp 1.8%, prev 1.7%) 8:30 am US Fed Board Gov Warsh Speaks. 8:30 am US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 315K, prev 324K) Chicago Fed Pres Moscow Speaks. 9:30 am US Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks. 10:00 am US Apr Leading Indicators Index (exp 0.1%, prev -0.1%) 10:45 am US Richmond Fed Pres. Lacker Speaks. 11:45 am US Atlanta Fed Pres Guynn Speaks. 11:45 am US St Louis Fed Pres. Poole Speaks on Yield Curve Inversions. 12:00 pm US May Philadelphia Fed Index (exp 12.0, prev 13.2). 5:30 pm Former Fed Chairman Greenspan Speaks.

We have some fed speeches today, so keep an eye out for them. That's all for today's forex market trading may18 preview.

Forex Market Trading May17 Aftermath

2006-05-18T00:56:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May17 Aftermath - The dollar gained against the majors in today's forex market trading. Usd gained 48 pips against the gbp, and 104 pips against the eur. The reason why the gbp took a smaller fall was the release of the BoE meeting minutes,instead of the anticipated 8-0 unanimous decision, six members voted for a no-change in policy, while two members voted in favor for a change in policy. Stephen Nickels voted in favor for a rate cut, while David Wilton voted for a 25-bp rate hike to 4.75%.

Today's forex market trading saw the gbp fail to breach the 1.90 level after the minutes release, and retreated in us forex market trading on strong usd inflation data. The April core CPI outpaced analyst estimates for a decline to 0.2%, instead remaining unchanged from the previous month at 3.0%. The headline figure also edged out forecasts for a rise to 0.5%, jumping to 0.6% in April compared with a 0.4% a month earlier. The fed said it will keep and eye on incoming data in deciding the upcoming steps.

The eur closed at 1.2741 and the gbp at 1.8821. That's all for Forex Market Trading May17 Aftermath.

Forex Market Trading May17 Preview

2006-05-16T23:58:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May17 Preview - Today we have another barrage of news coming out, both from eur and the us. Among the most important times for today's forex market trading are: 4:30 (all times EST), when we have a set of gbp data, especially The Bank of England Minutes, then 30 min later we have the eur Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production. In us forex market trading we also have the Consumer Price Index at 8:30 EST.

Forex Market Trading May17 major reports coming out:

04:30 UK Bank of England May MPC Meeting Minutes cons.8-0,prev 8-0
05:00 E-12 Apr CPI y/y cons. 2.4% prev. 2.2%
05:00 E-12 Mar Industrial Production cons. -0.3% prev. 0.0%
08:30 US Apr Core CPI cons. 0.2% prev. 0.3%
08:30 US Apr CPI cons. 0.5% prev. 0.4%
09:15 US Boston Fed Pres. Minehan Speaks
21:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin

Forex Market Trading today should also see a volatile session. As you can see on my eur chart on top, I still am waiting for a signal to confirm a continuation of the longterm trend, so no longterm trading today, just daydrading. I might include a news strategy for days like these in my forex trading strategies.

That's all for today's forex market trading may17 preview.

Forex Market Trading May16 Aftermath

2006-05-16T22:37:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May16 Aftermath - The eur and gbp rebounded against the dollar in Forex Market Trading today with the eur gaining 61 pips and the gpb gaining 114 pips. We had an array of economic data coming out and that accounted for a volatile day.

In today Forex Market Trading we had the German ZEW survey come out at a reading of 50, while the consensus was 60, a fall after last month's 62.7 number. After the repost the eur hit a low for the day at 1.2769, but rebounded and it was trading at 1.2815 prior to the us open.

Forex market trading in us session brought a lot of reports and here are the results: The core PPI reading for April was slightly softer than expected at 0.1%, unchanged from March but weaker than the expected 0.2%. The headline figure meanwhile rose to 0.9%, edging both estimates of a rise to 0.7% and the previous 0.5% reading. Housing starts for April dropped to 1.849 mln units, compared with 1.996 mln a month earlier. The drop in the housing starts marked its lowest rate since November 2004. The April permits were down by 5.4% at 1.984 mln units, versus a decline of 2.7% from March, which marked its lowest rate since February 2004.

Forex trading saw the eur spike to 1.2866 on the PPI reports, and after some zig-zagging the eur closed the day higher at 1.2844. Gbp closed at 1.8870.

I didn't take any trades but was testing a new forex trading strategies called "The 10 minute strategy". You can read more about this forex strategy here or you can visit forex trading strategies SB forum for more.

That's all for today's forex trading may16 aftermath.

Forex Market Trading May16 Preview

2006-05-16T01:01:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May16 Preview - The majors got hit by dollar advance yesterday, with the usd gaining against all majors. Dollar gained 236 pips against the pound(from monday open) and 184 pips against the eur. Gold fell 34 $ to close at 678.20$.

In my opinion this maybe a temporary pullback, or it may be a complete reversal. See the chart for forex market trading may16 preview below. I'll let the chart tell me if the trend will continue or reverse. That's for the long-term. Today it's time for intraday forex trading strategies
You can still leave a comment about which strategy you want to be included and traded.

Forex market trading may16 preview for today brings a lot of economic reports. Here they are:

At 4:30 AM UK April CPI y/y (exp 2.0%, prev 1.8%) At 5:00 AM Germany May ZEW Current Situation Survey (exp 5.0, prev 2.9) Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey (exp 60.0, prev 62.7) At 8:30 AM US April Core CPI (exp 0.2%, prev 0.3%) US April CPI (exp 0.5%, prev 0.4%) US April Core PPI (exp 0.2%, prev 0.1%) US April PPI (exp 0.7%, prev 0.5%) US April Building Permits (exp 2.045 mln, prev 2.094 mln) US April Housing Starts (exp 1.95 mln, prev 1.96 mln) At 8:45 AM NY FedÂs Geithner Speaks At 9:15 AM US April Industrial Production (exp 0.4%, prev 0.6%) US April Capacity Utilization (exp 81.5, prev 81.3) At 1:00 PM US Fed Board Governor Kroszner Speaks At 7:15 PM US Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

With this many reports on both sides of the Atlantic, it should be a interesting day. Now here the gbp chart to see what I was talking about here. The trend will probably resume, but it may just reverse, so I'll use caution and let the price give a clue of further direction.

That's all for this Forex Market Trading May16 Preview.

Forex Market Trading May15

2006-05-16T00:36:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May15 - Today at got stopped out of my gbp/usd long position. Total profit +0. As I said I had a profit of 130 pips at one time, but that's forex market trading, you never know when the markets are going to turn. I tried to re-enter a long, but too early, I got stopped out on that too, so -30 pips for today.

Thanks for reading my forex market trading reports and please feel free to leave a comment, ask questions etc...

Forex Trading - Weekly Analysis

2006-05-13T10:08:00.000-04:00

Forex Trading - Weekly Analysis. This week I'll be focusing on the Gold market. Gold gained an amazing 70% in this past year and climbed from the 420-440$ range gained 300$ and closed yesterday at 714$. The weekly close above another significant round number - 700$, may mean new highs for gold.

Gold technically doesn't belong in forex trading, but many forex brokers offer trading gold spot alongside forex trading. Plus this market is so hot now, that it couldn't slip my attention.

So what's driving gold up? Or maybe a better question would be - What's not driving gold up? Just to recap 2 of the most recent moves: China will probably increase it's reserves of gold by 3-4 times and moves in forex trading, the falling dollar of course. Looking back little further: The Iran Nuclear Crisis was the major force behind the recent rally in gold. In times of insecurity, investors use the precious metal as a safe heaven. Plus rising oil prices as a result of the dispute are having an impact on gold, it is seen as a good hedge against raising oil prices. The dispute is not being resolved, and that just adds fuel to the fire.

Forex trading - The dollar fall had it's share in gold's advance. The metal rallied even amid a strong usd, now that task is much easier. And finally let's not forget basic supply and demand forces. There's simply not enough gold in the world. Demand is expected to exceed supply by far this year. Here's a good site for gold news/analysis.

Now here's the chart, technicals favor gold. Just look at that rally. Still the CCI seems a little stagnant so I would be careful not to buy gold without some confirmation. Timing is just as important as direction. A retracement is possible, but even then it should be short-lived, and the uptrend should continue.

That's all for this forex trading - weekly analysis. Thanks for reading, feel free to leave a comment and bookmark this site, so you can come back often.

Forex Market Trading May12 Aftermath

2006-05-13T08:58:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May12 Aftermath - As expected, the dollar lost more ground today falling 101 pips against gbp and 73 pips against eur. In my Forex Market Trading May12 Preview,
I said 1.90 in gbp will be hit soon. It was hit today, when gbp climbed to 1.8996-1.8999. It hit resistance there and fell, closed at 1.8945. That fall was partly caused by better than expected US trade balance report.

I entered at 1.8862, I found some support there. As I said in the forex market trading may12 preview, there was a good woodies cci signal - ZLR on gbp daily chart. The trade went well, and at around +50 pips I decided to go for brake even. Gbp rose to 1.90 as I said, I had a profit of +130 pips at one time, but I got to stick to the plan, the signal was at daily chart, so I should look for exit on daily, or if I'm stopped out by big adverse move. I'm currently at + 83 pips, unrealized profit. I normally don't hold trades over the weekend, but with the dollar being so weak, it seems ok, we'll see. My stop is at brake even.

Forex market trading for the eur went pretty much the same as gbp, it gained against the dollar too. Eur hit a hi of 1.2955 and closed at 1.2926. Obviously 1.30 is the next test level for the eur. The same goes for 1.90 for gbp.

That's all. Thanks for reading my forex market trading may12 aftermath.

Forex Market Trading May12 Preview

2006-05-12T01:38:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May12 Preview - The dollar rallied yesterday, after the boost by the report that didn't label China as a currency manipulator, and some fed hawkish statements yesterday, but that rally was short lived. The Forex Market hammered the dollar again, with the eur gaining 50, and gbp over 180 pips (after good uk data).

As for today forex market trading, I expect the trend in dollar weakness to continue. The major report to watch out for today is the US Trade Balance at 8:30 EST. The consensus figures are -$67 billion up from -$65.7 billion last month. Any fugure bigger than the consensus should push the dollar to new lows in the coming days. In my opinion, we should see 1.30 in eur and 1.90 in gbp very soon.

Here are the charts for today's forex market may12 preview. The eur and gbp are both in uptrends that should continue. Cable just made a nice ZLR Woodies CCI pattern on daily. I'll try to enter in it's direction today. Thanks for reading my forex market trading may12 preview.

Forex Market Trading May10 Aftermath

2006-05-12T01:14:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May10 Aftermath - Hi all, first of all I wan to apologize for not posting this sooner. I had some technical problems that were out of my hands. Here's the Forex market trading aftermath. -The Fed raised the interest rate to 5%, a move expected by all. With a little more hawkish tone, or rather keeping it's hawkish tone all in an attempt to stop the dollar sell-off. This attempt seems to have failed for the time being. The dollar rally was short lived, the eur gained 50 pips and gbp 180 pips.

Here is my trade after the news, I took a ZLR on gbp 15 min chart.

That's the results for Forex Market Trading for may10.

Forex Market Trading May10 Preview

2006-05-09T21:10:00.000-04:00

Forex Market Trading May10 Preview - I expect the market to be quiet tomorrow up until the FOMC rate decision at 14:15 EST. The majors should stay in tight ranges awaiting the decision.

Two possible reactions of forex market trading to the FOMC rate decision: 1. The FED keeps the terms used in earlier statements that are somewhat hawkish - positive for the usd.
2. They back down and suggest the the cycle of interest rates increases is nearly over.

There almost unanimous consensus that the FOMC will raise interest rates by 25 points at this meeting, so that is already priced into the dollar, so the focus will be as I said to the statements about future interest rates increases.

Another important event is the decision that forex market trading will be focusing on is -Will US label China as a currency manipulator? Report is due at 16:00. This report is more important for the usd-yen than the others.

Forex market trading may10 preview for the eur-usd pair.

So to sum it up,forex market trading may10 preview: expecting range trading until the reports, then will try to catch the first wave.

Forex Broker and Forex Trading Platform

2006-05-08T12:05:00.000-04:00

Choosing a forex broker is one of the more important parts of forex trading. It may seem like a purely technical issue, but choosing forex broker can have a big impact on your final profit statements.

My advice would be to check out as many forex brokers as you need to make a decision and don't rush into this decision. The good part is almost every forex broker offer a demo forex trading platform. Don't trade with a forex broker for real money unless you have testing their forex trading platform first. The advantages or disadvantages of the forex broker can become apparent at this stage. The forex trading platform may not be right for you, you may not be able to place orders fast and accurate enough. Different forex brokers offer different orders: market orders, limit orders, OCO orders etc... Be sure that your forex broker has all the orders and features you'll need.

I'm using metatrader 4 forex trading platform. It's free, has a lot of indicators, a backtesting capability and is extremely easy to use. You can get the metatrader 4 forex trading platform here. SB metatrader platform is not a real forex broker platform, but it implements several forex broker data feeds to come up with it's prices, so you may need to find a forex broker that offers metatrader 4. A lot of forex brokers use this forex trading platform, so it shouldn't be to much trouble finding one. Alternatively you can use metatrader forex trading for analysis and enter your orders with a different forex broker.

Aside the forex trading platform, there are a number of issues with the choosing a forex broker. Again it all depends on your trading style. If you trade the news, you'll want a forex broker that guarantees orders during and after the news, and that has a fixed spread that doesn't change in volatile conditions.

If you're a scalping, you'll want a forex broker that allows this type of forex trading, and that has really tight spreads. If you're an aggressive trader you may want a forex broker that offer bigger leverage and margins, like 200:1 or even 400:1. On the opposite side if you're a conservative forex trader, you may want the opposite. If you're starting small you may want a forex broker that allows fractional forex trading ( this type of forex broker let you choose how much you want to bet, and basically you can choose trade 0.1$ per pip or even 0.01$ per pip).

There a lot of forex brokers you can choose from, give several of them a try before committing real money with them,but be sure to choose the forex broker that is right for you.

Forex Online Trading - The topics of my forex blog

2006-05-07T21:20:00.000-04:00

The focus of this blog is the Forex Market. This forex blog has mainly 2 functions. The first is to keep track of my forex trading and the testing of different forex trading strategies, and the second a useful tool to help learn how to trade forex for those new to this great market. For those new to forex, I plan to keep adding new forex articles, mainly during the weekends when I have time off from my forex trading.

As I said the focus will mainly be on my forex trading and testing different forex trading strategies. I claim no right to the forex trading strategies that will be presented here, because most of them are not even mine, but are found floating on open forex forums.

Besides marking my trades as most of the forex blogs focus on, I will also keep track of several forex trading strategies that I found to the worth the effort. I'll mainly track around 5 different forex trading strategies at a time. Old forex strategies will be abandoned if they prove not profitable, and new ones will be added.

I have 2 forex trading strategies that will monitor and I'm looking around the web and testing new ones to include. So please share your comments as to which forex strategy you want to be included here for evaluation and monitoring. Please also post the link where that forex strategy is located.

The two forex trading strategies are "Woodies CCI System" and "Simple combined brakeout system for eur/usd and gbp/usd by Hans123"

When I have time I will post a brief explanation of the rules of these forex trading strategies, in the meantime click the links and explore.

Besides focusing on forex trading strategies, and a section about learning forex trading, I will also post some forex news that I find important as well as recommend forex books that I found useful.

Good trading and big profits to all and remember have your say about which forex strategy you want to be included. Thanks.

Forex Online Trading

2006-05-06T10:10:00.000-04:00

Forex online trading has exploded during the last few years both in volume, but more important in the number of participants. The real revolution in forex online trading happened when together with banks and large financial institutions, individuals got to participate in the market.

Here are some of the advantages that make forex online trading the best market to trade.

Liquidity - The forex market is a 1.9 trillion $ market - the biggest and most liquid market in the world
24 hours trading - Forex online trading follows the sun around the globe - Starting with Australia , Japan , Europe and ending with The United States. From Sunday night to Friday late in the day , the Forex market is always open.
Leverage - One of the big advantages of forex is it's leverage which can go from 1:1 to 400:1 and yes , you choose the leverage and you can adapt it to your style of trading , whether it's aggressive or conservative. Different brokers offer different leverage so be sure to choose the one that's right for you. Remember more leverage means bigger gains as well as bigger losses
Fractional trading - The forex market is a decentralized market - This means that there's no regulators , and no standard contracts like there are in futures markets. Basically in forex online trading you exchange money with another party. You choose what amount of money you exchange. There are a lot of brokers offering fractional trading. This basically means you can make your pips as big or as small as you want - You can make 1 pips= 1$ , or 1 pips=100$ or even 1 pips=0.01 $. It's all up to you.
No commissions - In forex trading there are generally no commissions, most forex brokers make their money of the bid/ask spreads.

This is just a brief introduction to those that might be new to forex. This blog is both for those new to forex as well as experienced traders. In my next post I'll explain what this blog will be mainly focused on.

Remember this blog will be updated constantly so be sure to bookmark this page and revisit it often.

Good trading and big profits to all!